Financial Determinants of Stock Prices in the Jakarta Islamic Index: Evidence from DER, PER, and DPS

Latifur Rohmah, Muhammad Fadhli Dzil Ikram, Nuryana Nurul Hasanah

Abstract


Introduction: Understanding how financial indicators drive stock prices in Sharia-compliant markets is essential for guiding informed and ethical investment decisions. This study examines the influence of three key financial performance measures—Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Price Earning Ratio (PER), and Dividend per Share (DPS)—on the stock prices of companies listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). As one of Indonesia’s premier Islamic indices, JII offers a distinctive setting where conventional financial metrics interact with the principles of Islamic finance.

Methodology: A quantitative explanatory approach was employed using panel data from 20 companies consistently listed in JII between 2019 and 2023. Firms were selected based on consistent dividend distribution, complete financial reporting, and compliance with Sharia screening criteria. The Fixed Effect Model was chosen following Chow and Hausman tests. Model validity was confirmed through classical assumption tests, showing normality, no multicollinearity, no heteroskedasticity, and no autocorrelation.

Results: The analysis reveals that PER (β = 62.43, p = 0.002) and DPS (β = 4.15, p < 0.001) exert a significant positive influence on stock prices, indicating that profitability expectations and dividend policies are decisive factors for investors. Conversely, DER (β = –305.78, p = 0.039) has a significant negative effect, suggesting that higher leverage is viewed unfavorably in Sharia markets due to restrictions on interest-based financing. The adjusted R² of 0.709 reflects strong explanatory power.

Conclusion: Dividend policy and profitability expectations emerge as primary drivers of stock prices in JII-listed firms, while excessive leverage undermines market valuation. These findings offer practical guidance for corporate managers, policymakers, and investors aiming to strengthen Sharia-compliant investment strategies. Future studies may integrate macroeconomic variables or compare across global Islamic indices to broaden the insights.


Keywords


Jakarta Islamic Index, Debt to Equity Ratio, Price Earning Ratio, Sharia-compliant Investment

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abdullah, M., & Razak, D. A. (2021). Islamic financial discipline and investor behavior: Evidence from Shariah stock markets. Journal of Islamic Finance, 10(2), 45–58.

Ahmad, M., & Osman, F. (2020). Financial ratio analysis and stock price prediction: Evidence from Islamic equity markets. International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance, 3(1), 55– 67.

Alam, N., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). Empirical insights into Shariah-compliant equities: Risk- return relationship. International Review of Financial Analysis, 69, 101462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101462

Azizah, N., & Nurazizah, R. (2021). Financial performance and investor response in Islamic capital markets. Journal of Sharia Finance, 13(1), 1–12.

Bhattacharya, S. (1979). Imperfect information, dividends, and stock prices. The Bell Journal of Economics, 10(1), 259–270. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003339

Brigham, E. F., & Daves, P. R. (2021). Intermediate financial management (14th ed.). Cengage Learning.

Chen, C., Lin, W., & Wang, S. (2022). The interaction of dividend policy and stock price in emerging markets. Finance Research Letters, 48, 102939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102939

Damodaran, A. (2019). Valuation: Measuring and managing the value of companies (7th ed.). Wiley.

Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486

Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2015). A five-factor asset pricing model. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.10.010

Farooq, M. O., & Lahsasna, A. (2021). The ethics of Islamic equity investing: An overview. Journal of Islamic Business and Management, 11(2), 145–160.

Fauzi, F., & Locke, S. (2020). Capital structure and firm performance in Indonesian Islamic banks. Asian Journal of Islamic Economics, 3(2), 95–108.

Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill.

Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., & Anderson, R. E. (2019). Multivariate data analysis (8th ed.). Cengage Learning.

Hakim, R., & Firdaus, M. (2022). Ethical investing and price volatility: Case of Indonesia’s Shariah-compliant stocks. Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance, 8(1), 33–46.

Hanif, M. (2021). Islamic finance principles and corporate leverage: A critical perspective. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 12(3), 379–392.

Hasanah, R., Nugroho, A., & Salim, M. (2023). Dividend policy and stock returns in Indonesia’s Islamic market. Journal of Management and Finance, 10(1), 19–30.

Irawan, H., & Santosa, A. (2021). The role of dividend consistency in stock price stability. Journal of Financial Studies, 14(2), 85–97.

Iskandar, D., & Dewi, R. (2022). Capital structure and investor perception in Shariah firms. Journal of Business Research and Review, 8(3), 105–116.

Khan, M., Ahmad, Z., & Shah, A. (2021). Empirical determinants of stock price volatility in Islamic capital markets. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 14(4), 722–740. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-06-2020-0307

Kurniawan, T., & Darmawan, A. (2021). The role of PER in investment decision making in JII companies. Shariah Investment Journal, 5(2), 110–120.

Kusnandar, H., & Sari, R. (2021). PER and stock valuation: Evidence from Indonesian Islamic firms. Journal of Islamic Economics and Business Research, 9(2), 99–112.

Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings, and taxes. American Economic Review, 46(2), 97–113.

Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1963). Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital: A correction. The American Economic Review, 53(3), 433–443.

Myers, S. C. (1984). The capital structure puzzle. The Journal of Finance, 39(3), 575–592.

Myers, S. C., & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(2), 187– 221.

Nasution, D., & Fadhilah, S. (2022). Leverage effect on stock price: Study on Islamic firms in Indonesia. Journal of Islamic Management Studies, 7(1), 77–88.

Nugroho, D. A., & Hapsari, S. (2023). Earnings expectations and stock price movement: A case study on JII. Journal of Finance and Banking Research, 12(1), 35–47.

Nurfadilah, R., & Nugroho, T. (2023). Capital structure, firm value, and Shariah-compliant investment. Journal of Islamic Finance and Business, 4(1), 1–11.

Oktaviani, Y., & Fajri, M. (2023). Islamic equity market resilience during crisis: Evidence from JII. Journal of Islamic Economics, 9(2), 122–135.

Putra, I. W., & Hartono, S. (2023). PER and firm performance: The role of sustainability in Shariah firms. Journal of Sustainable Finance, 5(1), 45–60.

Putri, A. D., & Hidayat, R. (2021). Determinants of stock price in the Indonesian Islamic equity market. Journal of Islamic Financial Studies, 9(2), 55–67.

Putri, M. A., & Wibowo, S. (2020). Leverage and stock valuation in Shariah-compliant firms. Indonesian Journal of Islamic Finance, 3(2), 88–97.

Rachmawati, F., & Wibowo, A. (2021). Financial leverage and firm value in Islamic equity markets. Islamic Finance Journal, 11(1), 25–36.

Rahmani, R., Hamdani, A., & Amaliah, R. (2022). Dividend signaling in Indonesia’s Sharia stock index. Sharia Capital Market Journal, 6(1), 55–66.

Ramadhani, F., Yuniarti, Y., & Siregar, R. (2024). Panel regression of stock prices in Islamic index. Journal of Indonesian Islamic Economics, 10(1), 18–32.

Saad, R. A., Noor, A. M., & Zain, M. M. (2019). Growth expectations and stock pricing in Islamic investment. Journal of Islamic Economics and Management, 3(2), 61–75.

Saiti, B., Bacha, O. I., & Masih, M. (2018). Testing the conventional and Islamic markets: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Asset Management, 19(2), 140–157. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-018-0072-3

Sari, M. R., & Alamsyah, T. (2021). The role of DPS in Islamic equity returns. Journal of Islamic Finance and Economics, 6(1), 10–20.

Sari, Y., Yulianto, E., & Hartati, N. (2023). Financial fundamentals and stock prices in Shariah- compliant firms. Journal of Islamic Financial Research, 11(1), 87–98.

Spence, M. (1973). Job market signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010

Sukmawati, N., Rahman, A., & Fauziah, D. (2022). DER and stock price volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic equity market. Journal of Islamic Economic Analysis, 5(2), 100–112.

Tarmizi, H., Rachmawati, N., & Amin, S. (2022). Dividend and performance in Indonesian Islamic stocks. Journal of Islamic Management Science, 7(2), 66– 79.

Wahyuni, L., & Fitri, H. (2022). Leverage and valuation in Islamic stock portfolios. Journal of Islamic Capital Markets, 4(2), 35–49.

Yuliana, D., Santoso, B., & Nugraha, P. (2021). Investor behavior and stock performance in Indonesia. Islamic Capital Market Journal, 8(2), 22–34.

Yusuf, M., Hakim, R., & Fauzan, M. (2023). Sharia screening and investor preferences: Evidence from JII. Journal of Islamic Business Studies, 5(1), 70– 81.

Yusra, D., & Firmansyah, A. (2020). Dividend payout and investor trust in Islamic stock markets. Journal of Islamic Finance, 4(1), 50–63.




Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

   

    

Editorial Office:

Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, Universitas Alma Ata

Jl. Brawijaya No.99, Jadan, Tamantirto, Kec. Kasihan, Kabupaten Bantul, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta 55184

Lisensi Creative Commons
JESI by http://ejournal.almaata.ac.id/index.php/JESI is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.